After some encouraging signs late last year, it was frustrating to see the Hatteras Island real estate market showing signs of further softening in the first quarter of 2007. Residential sales were down 13.5 percent, and unimproved lot sales declined 70.0 percent compared to the first three months of 2006. When all categories of properties are taken into account, total sales were off about 30 percent.
The Hatteras Island Pending Home Sales Index, an indicator of anticipated closings 45 to 60 days in the future, has steadily declined since last November. The index is showing that current levels of residential contract activity are about 38 percent of the average level experienced in 2001, the first of the recent boom years. The index suggests that sales will be subdued for at least the next two months.
The supply of properties continues to exceed demand by a wide margin. There is currently a 3.1 year supply of homes for sale on the island. The supply/demand relativity for unimproved lots is even more out of balance. Presently, there is a 6.5 year supply of home sites for sale on Hatteras Island. There were only 6 lot sold on the entire island during the first quarter of this year!
As supply continues to exceed demand, the quarterly median selling price of residential properties has declined 35 percent from $645,000 in June 2005 to $419,000 for the first quarter of 2007. In contrast to 2006 when residential sales in the $400,000 to $500,000 range dominated sales, during the first quarter of this year, home sales in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range were most prevalent. Lot sale prices ranged from $125,000 to $220,000, indicating buyer preferences for the lowest priced properties. By contrast, during the first quarter of 2006, there were 20 sales with half priced over $300,000.
Geographically, first quarter residential sales were concentrated at the north and south ends of the island. It is very interesting to note that oceanside properties in Waves, Salvo, Avon and Frisco were in least demand. Oceanside properties usually represent the highest demand locations.
Over the Easter holiday, it was heartening to see an increased number of prospective buyers looking at properties. We continue to anticipate improved market conditions later in the year, but we believe that the psychological boost of a reduction in the federal funds rate will probably be a key ingredient to the timing of any significant change in the direction of the real estate market on Hatteras Island.
After taking all of the statistics and observations into consideration, we think that it would be reasonable to conclude that the real estate market on Hatteras Island is still in the process of adjustment from the boom years, although we are seeing some positive signs that 2007 may be a better year than 2006 for both buyers and sellers. The increased number of buyers looking at property is good news for sellers, especially those who have recognized that buyers are value-shopping, searching for the homes that are the most attractively priced and in the best condition.
Bottom line – It’s a great time to be a buyer on Hatteras Island!